|
Construction Robot Market The global construction market for robots is expected to grow about 17.5% between 2023 and 2030 due to growing emphasis on reducing waste and controlling costs. Examples of the growing use of robots in construction was in the spotlight at ENR’s FutureTech 2024 forum. The emergence of AI-driven algorithms has increased the opportunities for construction sites to use robots. Robots are being used today for a variety of applications, including surface finishing and painting applications, installing asphalt shingles on residential roofs, repetitive applications such as clip installation, concrete inspection and layout marking. A company in San Francisco is using an AI-enabled robot to autonomously remove metal fasteners from lumber waste. Construction giant Skanska is using two autonomous robots to build a 31-story residential tower in Seattle. They provide high-res, 360-degree photographic images that help Skanska monitor everything from lighting conditions and fall hazards to PPE and fire safety. Promise Robotics has developed AI-powered tech that translates building designs into robotic instructions that allow robots to perform complex construction tasks that significantly reduce construction times. In some cases, they’ve gone from 100 days to around 15. Holiday Retail Sales Forecast Holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% this year to a total of $1.58 to $1.59 trillion, returning to pre-pandemic levels, according to the first Deloitte 2024 Holiday Forecast. Holiday sales, particularly in ecommerce, saw a sharp surge after the pandemic, according to Deloitte. Holiday sales grew 4.3% to a total of $1.49 trillion in the 2023 through 2024 shopping season. Deloitte is forecasting that ecommerce sales will grow between 7.0% and 9.0% year-over-year, totaling between $289 billion and $294 billion this season. That's compared to 10.1% growth to $252 billion last year. Bank of America (BoA) released their 2025 annual ecommerce survey which monitors sector trends and outlook for the next year. They expect ecommerce to grow market share during the upcoming holiday season as consumers are drawn to online shopping by convenience, price comparability and a shorter holiday shopping window after Thanksgiving. The survey revealed 52% of respondents expect to increase their online spending year-over-year, compared to 46% last year. Value rules, with 62% of respondents reporting they are hunting for lower prices due to economic changes and uncertainty about the upcoming Presidential election. Adobe forecasts a record increase in online sales, expecting US online spending overall to hit $8.6 billion, up 7.2% year over year for Amazon Deal Days. From Nov. 1, when holiday spending picks up in earnest, through Dec.31, Adobe expects US online sales of $240.8 billion, an 8.4% gain and a new record. Last year shoppers crammed more of their holiday shopping into big discount days. However, analysts say that newer entrants to the online discount wars, like Temu, Shein and TikTok, could pose more holiday-season competition this year. Influencers and chatbots could also play a bigger role in shaping consumers' purchases. Disposable personal income has been growing steadily this year but it is growing at a slower pace than last year. High credit card debt will also impact consumer spending. Deloitte says consumers will continue to shop carefully and take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending. The holiday shopping season is already underway, with 48% of respondents to a recent Bankrate survey, saying that they were going to begin checking gifts off their list by October. Holiday Deal Days Retailers are gearing up for a busy holiday shopping season with major sales events in October. Several retailers announced upcoming Deal Days to get a head start on the holiday season since Thanksgiving is late this year, leaving only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Amazon, Walmart, and Target have all announced significant discounts across a wide range of categories. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days will be October 8 and 9, offering Prime members early access to holiday savings. Walmart’s Holiday Deals event will take place from Oct. 8 through 13, with members of Walmart+ getting a 12-hour head start on deals. Target Circle Week will run from Oct. 6 through 12, providing discounts across every department to Target Circle members. Public Sentiment Lags Behind Economic Progress Prices and interest rates are falling, but recent surveys suggest the public's mood is still marred by nearly two years of high inflation. Even though the Fed has apparently engineered the elusive soft landing public sentiment is still firmly on the side of “the sky is falling.” Falling rates with promises of more cuts to come this year and through 2026 signal that chapter of recent economic history is closed. Soon it should be cheaper for people to borrow money for homes and businesses to borrow to expand and grow. A New York Fed survey has consumer sentiment heading in the opposite direction. Through early this year the Fed survey showed people were feeling better off than a year ago and expecting more improvement in the year ahead. That has since been moving in the opposite direction even as inflation slowed further and rate cuts became more likely. Economists speculate that the coming election has created a partisan debate over who will do a better job of bringing down prices and improving the standard of living, turning the economy into a political rather than economic issue. Inflation in fact has registered one of its fastest ever declines, with the consumer price index's annual increase falling from more than 9% in June 2022 to 2.6% on a year-over-year basis last month. The Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index rose at a 2.5% rate in July, very near the central bank's 2% target. The Fed's half-point rate cut in September is likely to be followed by more, with at least another quarter percentage-point reduction expected when policymakers begin their next two-day policy meeting a day after the US presidential election. Just as rate increases designed to cool inflation lead to more expensive credit for families and businesses and discourage them from borrowing, spending and investing, reductions in borrowing costs change the calculus for would-be homebuyers and firms, particularly small businesses wanting to finance new equipment or expand production. Looser monetary policy has already put money back into people's pockets. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate home mortgage, the most popular home loan, is approaching 6% after nearing 8% just a year ago. Redfin, a real estate firm, recently estimated that the median payment on homes sold or listed in the four weeks through Sept. 15 was $300 less than the all-time high hit in April and nearly 3% lower than a year ago. However, mortgage rates began to fall even before the rate cut and future goals were announced so rates are not expected to fall much further this year, which may be disappointing to people. Rates are projected to level off in the mid-5% range eventually, meaning that most of the rate relief there has already occurred. Banks have begun trimming the "prime rate" they charge their most credit-worthy borrowers to match the Fed rate cut. Other forms of consumer credit, including auto and personal loans, have changed only marginally so far, and it may take longer still for banks to give up on charging higher finance costs. The US economy has been performing reasonably well despite concerns the job market might be on the brink of weakening. The unemployment rate has risen from historic lows from a year ago but is around the level the Fed feels is sustainable without generating excess wage and price pressures. A Philadelphia Fed index of manufacturing rose recently and retail sales for August grew despite expectations for a drop. The national mood may be gradually improving. The share of Americans who see the economy as heading in the right direction climbed to 25% in August from 17% in May 2022, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. At the same time, the share of people who think the economy is on the wrong track has eased from 74% to 60%. © Robert Bosch Tool Corporation. All rights reserved, no copying or reproducing is permitted without prior written approval.
|
|
