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Holiday Spending Rises Overall, consumers spent 3.8% more from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 than they did in the same period last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which excludes auto sales. The tally doesn't include the week after Christmas, which is a key shopping period. Online retail sales rose 6.7% year-over-year, while in-store sales increased 2.9%. Much of the gain in retail sales is being driven by higher-income consumers; households that earn $100,000 or more, as lower income consumers struggle to deal with higher prices. Thanksgiving Weekend Sales Walmart, Amazon and rapidly growing Shein and Temu saw record-breaking sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Americans spent roughly $10.8 billion online on Black Friday this year, up 10.2% from the previous year, then followed that up by spending $13.3 billion on Cyber Monday, 7.3% more compared to Cyber Monday in 2023, according to Adobe. Among major retailers, Amazon saw the strongest growth on Black Friday, with sales rising 6% compared to Black Friday a year earlier, according to data firm Facteus. Facteus tracks online and in-store spending in the United States by analyzing data from banks, credit unions, payment processors and fintech companies. Their figures are not inflation adjusted. Walmart saw 3% more spending compared to holiday 2023 and offered four times as many deals between Black Friday and Cyber Monday on the Walmart.com marketplace, resulting in their highest single sales day ever between Nov. 25 and Dec. 2, according to a company blog post. Temu generated $53.3 million in sales on Black Friday and $55.1 million on Cyber Monday, which were both records, Facteus said. Temu told Reuters in an email that toys, especially kids' instruments and cameras, were popular. Similarly, Shein also hit new highs, with sales of $34.2 million on Black Friday and $38.9 million on Cyber Monday. Mortgage Rate Forecast 2025 The Federal Reserve's updated expectations for 2025 and now expects to make only two more quarter-point cuts in 2025. Mortgage rates are priced off the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves based on long-term economic and monetary expectations. Those expectations for inflation and rate cuts are what sent yields up, with rates following. If consumer price data eases in coming months mortgage rates could drop, according to Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist. Employment data could play a role as well. If incoming data shows that job growth and inflation are slowing faster than expected, the 10-year Treasury yield could fall once again as the market anticipates more aggressive Fed rate cuts. If inflation eases, it could open the door to more rate reductions. The housing rent component in the CPI has been stubbornly resistant to going down. Mortgage analysts reported that the move in the CPI is a strong signal for homebuyers who may have been waiting for mortgage rates to fall to come off the sidelines and avoid trying to time the interest rate market. They believe that while there still could be reductions in mortgage rates next year the pace and extent will likely be limited. A more cautious approach of Fed monetary easing will keep borrowing costs higher for longer across the economy. Analysts are forecasting that mortgage rates will eventually fall to between 6% and 6.5%, although some see rates heading closer to 7%. The range of forecast rates wouldn't have much impact on the 74% of mainstream mortgages with rates below 5% but could spur some of the consumers with approximately $2 trillion in home loans with rates above 6% to refinance. For the commercial market, the Fed's cuts could provide a favorable environment for real estate financing rates for borrowers but lenders will be cautious according to senior economist at Moody's Analytics. Violent Weather Costs the Economy in 2024 Violent weather will cost the US economy more than $500 billion in insured and uninsured losses in 2024, according to experts with the weather forecasting company AccuWeather. The total cost of the nine most significant weather events in the US through December, including Hurricane Helene, equaled nearly 2% of GDP, according to a late December report from AccuWeather. Their chief meteorologist noted that the 2024 US hurricane season was one of the most expensive in modern history. Extreme weather events are becoming more widespread and affecting more people, businesses and communities are feeling the direct impacts and harm. Climate change will continue and climate chathe cost of these events will continue to rise. Global warming is broadly affecting extreme weather. Nearly all such events tracked by scientists globally in 2024 were made more intense by rising temperatures caused by the continued burning of fossil fuels, according to AccuWeather. 2025 Home Trends The design trends for 2025 are classic, personalized, comfortable, and nostalgic with a hint of quiet luxury. The year will be about creating a space that’s not only beautiful and functional but also sustainable. The trends include pops of bold colors, vintage accent pieces, and discreet smart-home technology that enhance convenience, according to Sarah Fishburne, director of trend and design at The Home Depot. Classic Elegance is a timeless trend with an emphasis on high-quality, classic decor. It celebrates personal style by modernizing artisanal and handcrafted pieces with a new color or finish. Formal dining rooms are making a comeback, aligning with the rise of broken floor plans and the desire for spaces dedicated to family connection. Moulding is also returning in a big way when it comes to the dining room along with warmer, bolder colors that balance the minimalism of the 2010s, or color drenching, a monochromatic approach. Modern Embrace is grounded in familiarity and timeless details like herringbone floors, thicker trim and wall paneling, shifting toward a softer, more approachable aesthetic that includes fluid design with organic shapes, soft curves and mixing and matching globally inspired decor and textiles. Artisanal furniture and decor that emphasize natural and original architecture add depth and character to a modern yet inviting home. Cozy Cottage reimagines traditional farmhouse and cottage aesthetics with a fresh, classic approach that prioritizes comfort, casualness, warmth, ambience and a touch of luxury. Homeowners are moving away from industrial and minimal styles toward unique, hand-crafted designs inspired by Shaker, prairie and country influences. The Design is layered, displaying collectibles that add character to the home. The palette blends soft, atmospheric hues with grounding natural tones. Vintage Deluxe balances opulence with timeless elegance, appealing to consumers who value investments that feel special while staying in vogue for years to come. Extreme maximism is waning, being replaced by classic, understated designs that you can build around and transform over the years. © Robert Bosch Tool Corporation. All rights reserved, no copying or reproducing is permitted without prior written approval.
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