Market Trends November 2024

Congress Averts Government Shutdown
Congress passed a short-term spending bill that will continue to fund all government agencies and departments through December 20. The bill passed easily with bipartisan support, likely because neither party wanted to be blamed for shutting down the government weeks before the election. The short-term funding measure was signed into law four days before funding would have expired. There were some notable exceptions to the funding bill which are now being questioned in light of current events, among them funds for disaster relief and aid to continue the Small Business Administration's disaster loan program. A lame duck Congress will have to deal with continuing funding before it expires right before the holidays.
 
Retailers Support Hurricane Recovery
Retailers across the Southeast mobilized to provide disaster relief and support for communities impacted by Hurricane Helene in September and Hurricane Milton in mid-October.
 
The Home Depot Foundation committed up to $3 million in incremental funding on top of the foundation’s annual disaster grants bringing the total amount committed to relief efforts this disaster season to more than $9 million.
 
Team Depot has been hard at work across the Southeast since the twin blows of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. The Home Depot’s associate volunteer force packed more than 6,500 disaster relief kits after Helene that included essentials like cleaning supplies, personal protective equipment (PPE), trash bags and more to be distributed in disaster zones and quickly went to work providing the same support for victims of Hurricane Milton.
 
Before Milton made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast, The Home Depot activated their Disaster Response Command Center, which brings together more than 100 expert associates across merchandising, operations, supply chain and technology to ensure communities have the supplies they need to prepare for and rebuild after a storm.
 
Walmart pledged an initial $10 million after Hurricane Helene devastated Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas in September and added another $6 million after Hurricane Milton roared through Florida in mid-October. Walmart teamed up with country music superstar Dolly Parton and also created a program that allows customers to support Red Cross Disaster Relief efforts through a donation at checkout in stores and online that raised more than $7.7 million.
 
Amazon delivered more than 40 truckloads of essential items from their Disaster Relief Hub near Atlanta to relief partners working in the affected areas. Amazon also put Amazon Web Services to work capturing high-res aerial imagery of affected regions to assist rescue and relief operations on the ground.
 
To help everyone provide support, Amazon created a cash donation page enabling people to directly contribute to established humanitarian organizations. Amazon says that every dollar contributed will help deliver critical supplies, temporary shelter, medical care and other emergency assistance to those in need. 
 
NRF Holiday Retail Sales Forecast
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts spending will grow 2.5%-3.5% during the November-December shopping period, less than the 3.9% it grew last year. Consumers are expected to spend between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, compared to $955.6 billion in 2023. NRF expects online shopping to be the main driver of the increase. NRFs forecast is in line with other predictions that point to slower growth in holiday sales compared to last year. NRF expects slower holiday hiring as well, predicting that retailers will hire between 400,00 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, down from 509,000 in 2023.
 
Online Holiday Shopping
Forecasters see holiday-related ecommerce spending accelerating after two slower years. Adobe projects US online sales will reach $240.8 billion during November and December, up 8.4% from 2023. Last year online sales grew 4.9% year over year during the same period. Polling by research firm Civic Science this summer found about half of US consumers expect to start holiday shopping prior to Thanksgiving.
 
This year also poses some unusual challenges for retailers. Retail activity typically slows during the week of major elections, according to Emarketer. In addition, Thanksgiving falls at the end of the month, on November 28th. That means less time in the traditional holiday shopping window.
 
EMarketer projects Amazon will capture 42.1% of all U.S. online holiday sales, worth $112.3 billion. Walmart is expected to land 8.1% of US ecommerce sales this holiday season  and Apple capture 4.5%. Walmart's projected 9.7% year-over-year growth for holiday season ecommerce, as projected by EMarketer, is slightly ahead of Amazon's 9.1%.
 
October Deal Days
October was packed with sales events, including Amazon Prime Big Deal Days (Oct. 8-9), Walmart Holiday Deals event (Oct. 8-13) and Target Circle Week (running through Oct. 12.)
 
Home Improvement stores didn’t miss out on the October action, with Lowe’s holding their first My Lowe’s Rewards Week promotion (Oct. 10-16). Home Depot held their second annual fall Décor Days Oct. 3-7, offering discounts of up to 50% on home items, including furniture, small kitchen appliances, lighting, rugs, decorative storage.
 
Cash Acceptance Standards Change
Walmart and other retailers are aiming to keep US paper money in poor condition out of circulation.  Currency with rips or tears that affect its original structure, trimmed or worn edges due to excessive use, stains that make the bill difficult to identify and discolorations caused by humidity or other conditions will no longer be accepted. Walmart says keeping these bills out of circulation reduces the risk of fraud.
 
This measure comes in response to the increase in counterfeit bills in the United States, a problem that generates millions of dollars in losses each year. The five-dollar bill has the shortest life span of all US currency, lasting about 4.7 years. The $100 bill has the longest, at 22.9 years.
 
In addition, US currency is getting a facelift. The first bill to be updated will be the $50 bill in 2028, followed by the twenty in 2030. The new banknotes will have advanced security features, such as microprinting, 3D bands that change color depending on the tilt, and special inks that react to ultraviolet light. These changes are designed to make counterfeiting much more difficult.

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