Housing & Construction December 2024

​Builder Confidence Rises to 46
Builder Confidence rose three points to 46 in November after rising two points to 43 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). All three HMI sub-indices were up in November. Current sales conditions rose two points to 49, sales expectations in the next six months jumped seven points to 64 and traffic of prospective buyers rose three-points to 32. Regional three-month moving averages were mixed. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders have a positive outlook than a negative one.
 
Building Permits Fall 0.6%
Building permits fell 0.6% to a 1.42 million unit annualized rate in October after falling to 1.43 million units in September. Single-family permits increased 0.5% to a 968,000 unit rate and are up 9.4% on a year-to-date basis. Multifamily permits decreased 3.0% to an annualized 448,000 pace.
 
Housing Starts Fall 3.1%
Housing starts fell 0.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.31 million units after rising to 1.35 million units in September. Single-family starts fell 6.9% to 970,000 units after rising to 1.03 million units in October. Single family starts were up 9.3% year to date. The volatile multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 9.6% to an annualized 341,000 pace but are down 29.3% on a year-to-date basis. Regional housing starts were mixed.
 
New Home Sales Fall 17.3%
New home sales fell 17.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 after rising to 738,000 new homes in September, according to the National Association of Home Builders. New home sales are down 9.4% compared to October 2023. New single-family home inventory in October remained high, rising to 481,000 homes after rising to 470,000 in September, up 8.8% compared to a year earlier, a 9.5 months’ supply at the current building pace. A 6 months’ supply is considered normal. The inventory of completed for-sale new homes rose to 116,000, up 52.6% from a year ago but this subset remained at just 24% of all inventory. The median new home sale price in October edged up 2.5% to $437,300 and is up 4.7% from a year ago. Sales of new homes are tabulated when contracts are signed and are considered a more timely barometer of the housing market than purchases of previously-owned homes, which are calculated when a contract closes.
 
Existing Home Sales Rise 3.4%
Existing-home sales rose 3.4% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million new homes after falling to 3.84 million homes in September. Sales were up 2.9% year over year, the first year-over-year gain in more than three years. The median existing-home sales price rose year over year for the sixteenth consecutive month, rising 4% to $407,200. Inventory rose 0.7% to 1.37 million homes at the end of October after rising to 1.39 million homes at the end of September. Inventory was at a 4.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. Regional existing home sales were mixed. NAR says that home sales have been stuck around the 4 million mark for more than a year, despite more available inventory, lower mortgage rates and continuing job growth.
 
Regional Housing Data 

​Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.8% 

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.8% at the end of November after rising to 6.7% at the end of October. Mortgage rates were 7.7% at the end of November 2023.
  
• Mortgage rates have been volatile as continued economic strength nudges them higher and conflicting news about the economy and future plans has the opposite effect. 
  
• Economists expect rates to stabilize but remain near current levels.
  
• Mortgage rates fell to 3.00% in 2021 during the pandemic and crested at just over 8.00% in 2023. 

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